Ajax vs Excelsior: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Excelsior travel to face Ajax on Saturday 19 September in the Eredivisie, with Johan Cruijff Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; Excelsior are 15th (lower half) with 11. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Willem II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 4.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Excelsior, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Utrecht, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Excelsior.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.8 xG, Excelsior 1.1 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 74% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 74%, draw 15%, Excelsior 12%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ajax to win (74%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 Excelsior. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax74%fair 1.36 · @1.20
Draw15%fair 6.84 · @6.50
Excelsior12%fair 8.45 · @10.00
3.83Expected goals
2.78Ajax xG
1.05Excelsior xG
63%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.8 – 1.1 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
74%
1.36
1.20
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.55
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
51%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
WWLWWW
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
20 Aug
@ FC Sion
4–2
W
4.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
LDWWLW
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Cambuur
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Excelsior.
Our pick is Ajax to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ajax vs Excelsior?
On our numbers Ajax have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Excelsior 12%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Excelsior?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Excelsior?
Ajax vs Excelsior (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
