Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✗65% · @1.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
NEC Nijmegen travel to face Ajax on Saturday 10 October in the Eredivisie, with Johan Cruijff Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; NEC Nijmegen are 11th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Excelsior, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 3.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
NEC Nijmegen, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with GO Ahead Eagles, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for NEC Nijmegen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.6 xG, NEC Nijmegen 1.3 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 75% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 65%, draw 16%, NEC Nijmegen 18%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 NEC Nijmegen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax65%fair 1.53 · @1.30
Draw16%fair 6.12 · @5.50
NEC Nijmegen18%fair 5.50 · @7.50
3.93Expected goals
2.61Ajax xG
1.32NEC Nijmegen xG
64%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
2–07%
2–26%
3–06%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.6 – 1.3 NEC Nijmegen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
65%
1.53
1.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.53
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
DWWLWW
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs FC Sion
5–3
W
3.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
NEC Nijmegen – last 6
DLLDLW
20 Sep
vs GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Juventus
0–5
L
12 Sep
@ Cambuur
0–3
L
8 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Feyenoord
1–3
L
29 Aug
@ PEC Zwolle
3–1
W
1.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and NEC Nijmegen.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
On our numbers Ajax have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 16% and NEC Nijmegen 18%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 NEC Nijmegen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
