Excelsior vs Groningen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Groningen travel to face Excelsior on Sunday 11 October in the Eredivisie, with Van Donge & De Roo Stadion the venue – the ball rolls at 15:45 WAT. In the table, Excelsior are 15th, lower half, on 11 points after 12 matches; Groningen are 9th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Excelsior, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Ajax, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Groningen, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over PEC Zwolle, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Excelsior 1.8 xG, Groningen 1.9 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 72% and GG at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Excelsior 39%, draw 21%, Groningen 40%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.44, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Excelsior 1–1 Groningen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Excelsior39%fair 2.56 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
Groningen40%fair 2.53 · @2.50
3.71Expected goals
1.85Excelsior xG
1.86Groningen xG
70%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
1–35%
3–15%
From our goals model: Excelsior 1.8 – 1.9 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Groningen to win✓
40%
2.53
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.44
1.50
Draw no bet
Groningen (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Excelsior +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
First team to score
Groningen to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Groningen / FT Groningen✓
24%
4.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.75
–
Recent results
Excelsior – last 6
DLDWWL
19 Sep
@ Ajax
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Utrecht
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Willem II
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Groningen – last 6
WDDLLW
18 Sep
vs PEC Zwolle
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ GO Ahead Eagles
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Twente
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Fortuna Sittard
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ PSV Eindhoven
1–5
L
16 Aug
@ ADO Den Haag
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior and Groningen.
What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Excelsior vs Groningen?
On our numbers Excelsior have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Groningen 40%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our predicted score is Excelsior 1–1 Groningen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Excelsior vs Groningen?
Excelsior vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
