Value bet: Ajax to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.12
Groningen vs Ajax: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax travel to face Groningen on Sunday 18 October in the Eredivisie, with Euroborg the venue – the ball rolls at 15:45 WAT. In the table, Groningen are 9th, upper half, on 15 points after 12 matches; Ajax are 3rd (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Groningen, last 5: WWDDL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Excelsior, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Ajax, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to HNK Hajduk Split, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (21 May 2026) it ended Ajax 2–0 Groningen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Groningen 1.6 xG, Ajax 2.5 xG – a total near 4.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 78% and GG at 69%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Groningen 23%, draw 18%, Ajax 59%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Ajax to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Groningen 1–2 Ajax. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Groningen23%fair 4.26 · @3.30
Draw18%fair 5.56 · @4.00
Ajax59%fair 1.71 · @1.85
4.13Expected goals
1.59Groningen xG
2.54Ajax xG
69%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–37%
2–27%
1–16%
2–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Groningen 1.6 – 2.5 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?
On our numbers Groningen have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Ajax 59%.
How many goals will there be in Groningen vs Ajax?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Groningen vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Groningen 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Groningen vs Ajax?
Groningen vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Euroborg.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
