Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMontpellier to win ✗60% · @1.68
Double chanceMontpellier or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.95
Montpellier vs Boulogne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Friday 28 August: Montpellier v Boulogne in the Ligue 2, played at Stade de la Mosson. In the table, Montpellier are 3rd, among the top four, on 24 points after 12 matches; Boulogne are 12th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Montpellier, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Dunkerque, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Boulogne, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with RED Star FC 93, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Montpellier, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Boulogne.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Montpellier 1.4 xG, Boulogne 0.5 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Montpellier 60%, draw 22%, Boulogne 18%.
Lower-risk option: Montpellier or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.26, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Montpellier 1–0 Boulogne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Montpellier60%fair 1.66 · @1.68
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.70
Boulogne18%fair 5.53 · @4.80
1.91Expected goals
1.36Montpellier xG
0.55Boulogne xG
47%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Montpellier 1.4 – 0.5 Boulogne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
60%
1.66
1.68
Double chance
Montpellier or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Draw no bet
Montpellier (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Boulogne +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.33 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.11
First team to score
Montpellier to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.95
–
Recent results
Montpellier – last 6
WWDWWL
21 Aug
@ Dunkerque
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Nancy
1–0
W
8 Aug
vs Dijon
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Rodez
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Cannes
3–4
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Boulogne – last 6
DLDDLW
21 Aug
vs RED Star FC 93
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Guingamp
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Nancy
0–0
D
31 Jul
@ Valenciennes
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Rouen
0–1
L
24 Jul
@ Amiens
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montpellier and Boulogne.
What is the prediction for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Montpellier vs Boulogne?
On our numbers Montpellier have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Boulogne 18%.
How many goals will there be in Montpellier vs Boulogne?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Our predicted score is Montpellier 1–0 Boulogne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Montpellier vs Boulogne?
Montpellier vs Boulogne (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Mosson.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
