Lille 65%Draw 23%Estac Troyes 12%Expected goals 2.15 – 0.85
65%
Betarazi pick
Lille to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultLille to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceLille or draw ✓88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Lille vs Estac Troyes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lille welcome Estac Troyes to Stade Pierre-Mauroy for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 13 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Lille are 2nd, among the top four, on 21 points after 10 matches; Estac Troyes are 17th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lille, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Real Betis, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes, last 5: LWDDD Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Strasbourg, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lille 2.1 xG, Estac Troyes 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lille 65%, draw 23%, Estac Troyes 12%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lille to win (65%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lille65%fair 1.54 · @1.40
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @4.40
Estac Troyes12%fair 8.46 · @6.50
3.00Expected goals
2.15Lille xG
0.85Estac Troyes xG
52%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lille 2.1 – 0.9 Estac Troyes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lille to win✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Double chance
Lille or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.85
Draw no bet
Lille (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Lille -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Lille to score first✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Lille ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lille / FT Lille✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Lille – last 6
LWDWDD
8 Sep
vs Real Betis
2–3
L
3 Sep
@ Toulouse
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Angers
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Everton
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Hamburger SV
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Estac Troyes – last 6
LWDDDW
6 Sep
vs Strasbourg
2–6
L
29 Aug
@ Lorient
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Paris FC
0–0
D
14 Aug
vs Panetolikos
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Auxerre
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Grenoble
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lille and Estac Troyes.
Our pick is Lille to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lille vs Estac Troyes?
On our numbers Lille have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estac Troyes 12%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Estac Troyes?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Our predicted score is Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lille vs Estac Troyes?
Lille vs Estac Troyes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
