Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonaco to win ✗61% · @1.57
Double chanceMonaco or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Monaco vs Toulouse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Ligue 1 brings Monaco against Toulouse at Stade Louis II. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Monaco are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Toulouse are 12th (lower half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Monaco, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lens, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Toulouse, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Le Havre, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monaco, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.8 for Toulouse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monaco 1.9 xG, Toulouse 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monaco 61%, draw 23%, Toulouse 16%.
Lower-risk option: Monaco or draw (84%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monaco to win (61%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monaco 1–0 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monaco61%fair 1.63 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @4.20
Toulouse16%fair 6.22 · @5.00
2.70Expected goals
1.86Monaco xG
0.84Toulouse xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Monaco 1.9 – 0.8 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
61%
1.63
1.57
Double chance
Monaco or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Draw no bet
Monaco (draw no bet)
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Monaco -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Monaco to score first✓
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Monaco ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Monaco – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Marseille
2–0
W
27 Aug
vs Gornik Zabrze
4–1
W
23 Aug
@ Le Havre
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
WDLDLL
19 Sep
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Lorient
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and Toulouse.
Our pick is Monaco to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Monaco vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Monaco have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 16%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Monaco 1–0 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
