Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Estac Troyes vs Marseille: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marseille travel to face Estac Troyes on Sunday 11 October in the Ligue 1, with Stade de l'Aube the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Estac Troyes are 17th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Marseille are 4th (among the top four) with 18.
Current form
Estac Troyes, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Angers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Marseille, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Paris Saint Germain, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estac Troyes 1.0 xG, Marseille 2.0 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estac Troyes 21%, draw 17%, Marseille 61%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Marseille to win (61%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estac Troyes 1–2 Marseille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estac Troyes21%fair 4.69 · @3.60
Draw17%fair 5.73 · @3.60
Marseille61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
3.00Expected goals
1.03Estac Troyes xG
1.97Marseille xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–110%
0–210%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Estac Troyes 1.0 – 2.0 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
61%
1.63
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Estac Troyes +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Estac Troyes – last 6
LLLWDD
19 Sep
@ Angers
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Lille
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Strasbourg
2–6
L
29 Aug
@ Lorient
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Paris FC
0–0
D
14 Aug
vs Panetolikos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 6
LLLLLW
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
11 Sep
@ Rennes
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Paris FC
2–3
L
30 Aug
@ Monaco
0–2
L
21 Aug
vs Strasbourg
4–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estac Troyes and Marseille.
What is the prediction for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Our pick is Marseille to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
On our numbers Estac Troyes have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Marseille 61%.
How many goals will there be in Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Estac Troyes 1–2 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
Estac Troyes vs Marseille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de l'Aube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
