Value bet: Lorient to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMonaco to win ✗47% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Lorient vs Monaco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:15 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Lorient v Monaco in the Ligue 1, played at Stade du Moustoir. In the table, Lorient are 10th, lower half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Monaco are 7th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lorient, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Paris FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Monaco, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over CSKA Sofia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monaco, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Lorient.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorient 1.0 xG, Monaco 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorient 31%, draw 22%, Monaco 47%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Lorient to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorient 1–1 Monaco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorient31%fair 3.28 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.30
Monaco47%fair 2.12 · @2.00
2.25Expected goals
0.96Lorient xG
1.29Monaco xG
58%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.0 – 1.3 Monaco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
47%
2.12
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Monaco (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Lorient +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Monaco to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
Lorient – last 6
WLDWLD
10 Oct
vs Paris FC
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Le Mans
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Lens
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Estac Troyes
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Nice
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monaco – last 6
WDWDWW
15 Oct
@ CSKA Sofia
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Marseille
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Monaco.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lorient vs Monaco?
On our numbers Lorient have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monaco 47%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Monaco?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Monaco?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Monaco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Monaco?
Lorient vs Monaco (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
