Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Lens to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLens to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chanceLens or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Estac Troyes vs Lens: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Estac Troyes v Lens in the Ligue 1, played at Stade de l'Aube. In the table, Estac Troyes are 17th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Lens are 11th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Estac Troyes, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Marseille, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Lens, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sporting CP, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lens, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Estac Troyes.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estac Troyes 1.0 xG, Lens 2.2 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estac Troyes 15%, draw 21%, Lens 64%.
Lower-risk option: Lens or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Lens to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lens or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estac Troyes 0–2 Lens. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estac Troyes15%fair 6.87 · @3.90
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.75
Lens64%fair 1.55 · @1.80
3.17Expected goals
0.97Estac Troyes xG
2.20Lens xG
59%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
1–210%
0–19%
1–19%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Estac Troyes 1.0 – 2.2 Lens expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✓
64%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Lens or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.57
Draw no bet
Lens (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Lens -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Lens to score first
66%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Lens ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✓
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.14
–
Recent results
Estac Troyes – last 6
LLLLWD
11 Oct
vs Marseille
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Angers
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Lille
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Strasbourg
2–6
L
29 Aug
@ Lorient
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Paris FC
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lens – last 6
LWLDWL
13 Oct
vs Sporting CP
0–2
L
9 Oct
vs Lyon
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Monaco
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Le Mans
2–2
D
10 Sep
@ Slavia Praha
3–2
W
5 Sep
vs Lorient
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estac Troyes and Lens.
Our pick is Lens or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
On our numbers Estac Troyes have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lens 64%.
How many goals will there be in Estac Troyes vs Lens?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Our predicted score is Estac Troyes 0–2 Lens, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Estac Troyes vs Lens?
Estac Troyes vs Lens (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de l'Aube.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
