Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Marseille vs Toulouse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marseille welcome Toulouse to Orange Vélodrome for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 1 November (20:45 WAT). In the table, Marseille are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 10 matches; Toulouse are 12th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Marseille, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Le Havre, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Toulouse, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estac Troyes, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 2.1 xG, Toulouse 1.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 57%, draw 19%, Toulouse 24%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 2–1 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille57%fair 1.76 · @1.85
Draw19%fair 5.38 · @3.80
Toulouse24%fair 4.09 · @3.50
3.38Expected goals
2.09Marseille xG
1.29Toulouse xG
64%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–07%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Marseille 2.1 – 1.3 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
57%
1.76
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.55
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Toulouse +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
First team to score
Marseille to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Marseille ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
35%
2.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 6
WLWLWL
25 Oct
vs Le Havre
4–3
W
22 Oct
@ Sturm Graz
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
DWDWDL
24 Oct
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
16 Oct
@ Le Mans
3–0
W
10 Oct
@ Monaco
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Lorient
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Marseille have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Toulouse 24%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Marseille 2–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Toulouse?
Marseille vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
