Lech Poznan 65%Draw 22%Jagiellonia 13%Expected goals 2.22 – 0.93
87%
Betarazi pick
Lech Poznan or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lech Poznan to win @ 1.64 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLech Poznan to win ✓65% · @1.64
Double chanceLech Poznan or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.19
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Thursday 3 September: Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa, played at Enea Poznań. In the table, Lech Poznan are 1st, leading the league, on 32 points after 13 matches; Jagiellonia are 9th (upper half) with 21.
Current form
Lech Poznan, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Widzew Łódź, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Jagiellonia, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Raków Częstochowa, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Momentum favours Lech Poznan, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.2 for Jagiellonia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lech Poznan 2.2 xG, Jagiellonia 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lech Poznan 65%, draw 22%, Jagiellonia 13%.
Lower-risk option: Lech Poznan or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Lech Poznan to win @1.64 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lech Poznan or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lech Poznan 2–0 Jagiellonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lech Poznan65%fair 1.53 · @1.64
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @4.30
Jagiellonia13%fair 7.77 · @4.40
3.15Expected goals
2.22Lech Poznan xG
0.93Jagiellonia xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Lech Poznan 2.2 – 0.9 Jagiellonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lech Poznan to win✓
65%
1.53
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Lech Poznan or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.50
Draw no bet
Lech Poznan (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Lech Poznan -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
First team to score
Lech Poznan to score first
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Lech Poznan ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lech Poznan / FT Lech Poznan✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
Lech Poznan – last 6
WDWWWW
30 Aug
@ Widzew Łódź
3–2
W
27 Aug
@ FC Thun
2–2
D
20 Aug
vs FC Thun
7–0
W
14 Aug
@ KI Klaksvik
5–0
W
9 Aug
vs Piast Gliwice
3–0
W
6 Aug
vs KI Klaksvik
1–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Jagiellonia – last 6
WWWDLW
30 Aug
@ Raków Częstochowa
5–2
W
27 Aug
@ FC Iberia 1999
2–1
W
20 Aug
vs FC Iberia 1999
4–0
W
13 Aug
@ Rangers
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Widzew Łódź
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Rangers
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia.
What is the prediction for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Our pick is Lech Poznan or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
On our numbers Lech Poznan have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Jagiellonia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Our predicted score is Lech Poznan 2–0 Jagiellonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia?
Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia (Ekstraklasa) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Enea Poznań.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
