Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Metalac GM to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMetalac GM to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceMetalac GM or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.97
Metalac GM vs Grafičar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 21 September the Prva Liga brings Metalac GM against Grafičar at Stadion FK Metalac. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Metalac GM are 12th, lower half, on 19 points after 17 matches; Grafičar are 14th (in the drop zone) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Metalac GM, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Borac Cacak, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Grafičar, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over OFK Bor 1919, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Metalac GM, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Grafičar.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metalac GM 1.9 xG, Grafičar 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 45%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metalac GM 62%, draw 22%, Grafičar 15%.
Lower-risk option: Metalac GM or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Metalac GM to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Metalac GM or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metalac GM 1–0 Grafičar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metalac GM62%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.25
Grafičar15%fair 6.55 · @3.70
2.72Expected goals
1.90Metalac GM xG
0.82Grafičar xG
45%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Metalac GM 1.9 – 0.8 Grafičar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metalac GM to win✓
62%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Metalac GM or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Metalac GM (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Metalac GM -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Metalac GM to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Metalac GM ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metalac GM / FT Metalac GM✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.97
–
Recent results
Metalac GM – last 6
WWDLLD
16 Sep
@ Borac Cacak
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs Dubočica
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Naftagas
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Loznica
2–4
L
23 Aug
@ FK Vozdovac
0–1
L
19 Aug
vs Semendrija 1924
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Grafičar – last 6
WLLLLD
17 Sep
vs OFK Bor 1919
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ OFK Vršac
1–4
L
5 Sep
@ Borac Cacak
1–2
L
31 Aug
vs Dubočica
1–4
L
24 Aug
@ Naftagas
1–2
L
19 Aug
vs Loznica
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metalac GM and Grafičar.
What is the prediction for Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Our pick is Metalac GM or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
On our numbers Metalac GM have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Grafičar 15%.
How many goals will there be in Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Our predicted score is Metalac GM 1–0 Grafičar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Metalac GM vs Grafičar?
Metalac GM vs Grafičar (Prva Liga) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion FK Metalac.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
