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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Dečić v FK Liepaja: numbers & prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Europe · Stadion Tuško Polje

Dečić

LLLLW
1–2
FT

FK Liepaja

LWLWL
Dečić 31%Draw 38%FK Liepaja 31% Expected goals 0.96 – 0.89
81%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.28Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.30 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✗38% · @3.30
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓69% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.44

Dečić vs FK Liepaja: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 15 July the UEFA Europa Conference League brings Dečić against FK Liepaja at Stadion Tuško Polje. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT.

Current form

Dečić, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to FK Liepaja, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

FK Liepaja, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Auda, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (9 Jul 2026) it ended FK Liepaja 1–0 Dečić.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Dečić 1.0 xG, FK Liepaja 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Dečić 31%, draw 38%, FK Liepaja 31%.
  • Lower-risk option: FK Liepaja or draw (69%) at 1.40.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.24, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dečić 0–0 FK Liepaja. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Dečić31%fair 3.24 · @2.80
Draw38%fair 2.65 · @3.30
FK Liepaja31%fair 3.19 · @2.25
1.86Expected goals
0.96Dečić xG
0.89FK Liepaja xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%

From our goals model: Dečić 1.0 – 0.9 FK Liepaja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✗38%2.653.30 ▲
Double chanceFK Liepaja or draw ✓69%1.451.40
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.851.73
Draw no betFK Liepaja (draw no bet) ✓50%1.98–
Asian handicapFK Liepaja +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓63%1.581.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗62%1.611.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.241.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓96%1.04–
First team to scoreDečić to score first44%2.29–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓52%1.93–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗24%4.23–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13%7.44–

Recent results

Dečić – last 6

LLLLWD
9 Jul@ FK Liepaja0–1L
28 Mayvs Mornar0–1L
24 May@ Bokelj0–1L
20 Mayvs Arsenal Tivat1–2L
6 Mayvs Otrant-Olympic1–0W
26 Aprvs Buducnost Podgorica0–0D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

FK Liepaja – last 6

LWLWLL
11 Jul@ Auda0–1L
9 Julvs Dečić1–0W
4 Jul@ BFC Daugavpils1–3L
30 Junvs Ogre United4–0W
26 Junvs Rīgas FS0–2L
21 Jun@ Riga0–4L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

9 Jul 2026FK Liepaja v Dečić1–0
Dečić vs FK Liepaja head-to-head page →

More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions

League hub
FT Malisheva5 Vllaznia Shkodër0 159%1.85X19%3.60222%3.50 2.0–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Dečić vs FK Liepaja?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Dečić vs FK Liepaja?

On our numbers Dečić have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 38% and FK Liepaja 31%.

How many goals will there be in Dečić vs FK Liepaja?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Dečić vs FK Liepaja?

Our predicted score is Dečić 0–0 FK Liepaja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is Dečić vs FK Liepaja?

Dečić vs FK Liepaja (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Wednesday 15 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Tuško Polje.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.