Matsumoto Yamaga 30%Draw 23%Kagoshima United 47%Expected goals 1.16 – 1.51
59%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultKagoshima United to win ✗47% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.90
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the J3 League brings Matsumoto Yamaga against Kagoshima United at Sunpro Alwin. Kick-off: 05:00 WAT. In the table, Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th, lower half, on 17 points after 16 matches; Kagoshima United are 4th (among the top four) with 31. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Gainare Tottori, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Kagoshima United, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cerezo Osaka, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Kagoshima United, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Matsumoto Yamaga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.2 xG, Kagoshima United 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 30%, draw 23%, Kagoshima United 47%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Kagoshima United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Matsumoto Yamaga30%fair 3.31 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.00
Kagoshima United47%fair 2.14 · @2.20
2.67Expected goals
1.16Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.51Kagoshima United xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.2 – 1.5 Kagoshima United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kagoshima United to win✗
47%
2.14
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.75
Draw no bet
Kagoshima United (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Matsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Kagoshima United to score first✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.90
–
Recent results
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
LWWDLD
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Roasso Kumamoto
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Sagamihara
1–3
L
9 Sep
vs Shonan Bellmare
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kagoshima United – last 6
LWDWWW
7 Oct
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Fukushima United
3–2
W
26 Sep
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Tochigi SC
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Kagoshima United.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Kagoshima United 47%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Kagoshima United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
