Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceMatsumoto Yamaga or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Wednesday 21 October: Matsumoto Yamaga v Thespakusatsu Gunma in the J3 League, played at Sunpro Alwin. In the table, Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th, lower half, on 17 points after 16 matches; Thespakusatsu Gunma are 19th (in the drop zone) with 13.
Current form
Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Parceiro Nagano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Thespakusatsu Gunma, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Gainare Tottori, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.8 xG, Thespakusatsu Gunma 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 64%, draw 21%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 15%.
Lower-risk option: Matsumoto Yamaga or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Matsumoto Yamaga or draw (85%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Matsumoto Yamaga64%fair 1.57 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.30
Thespakusatsu Gunma15%fair 6.71 · @4.00
2.45Expected goals
1.76Matsumoto Yamaga xG
0.69Thespakusatsu Gunma xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.8 – 0.7 Thespakusatsu Gunma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matsumoto Yamaga to win✓
64%
1.57
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Draw no bet
Matsumoto Yamaga (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Matsumoto Yamaga -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Matsumoto Yamaga to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Matsumoto Yamaga ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga✓
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
LLWLWW
18 Oct
@ Parceiro Nagano
1–2
L
14 Oct
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Kagoshima United
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Thespakusatsu Gunma – last 6
DWLLWL
17 Oct
@ Gainare Tottori
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Ehime FC
1–3
L
26 Sep
vs Roasso Kumamoto
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Kochi United
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Renofa Yamaguchi
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Thespakusatsu Gunma.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our pick is Matsumoto Yamaga or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 15%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
