Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Matsumoto Yamaga welcome Renofa Yamaguchi to Sunpro Alwin for a J3 League fixture on Sunday 25 October (06:00 WAT). In the table, Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th, lower half, on 17 points after 16 matches; Renofa Yamaguchi are 5th (upper half) with 30. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Thespakusatsu Gunma, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 2 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Renofa Yamaguchi, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ehime FC, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Renofa Yamaguchi, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Matsumoto Yamaga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 1.1 xG, Renofa Yamaguchi 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 37%, draw 24%, Renofa Yamaguchi 38%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Matsumoto Yamaga37%fair 2.68 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @2.90
Renofa Yamaguchi38%fair 2.60 · @2.50
2.13Expected goals
1.05Matsumoto Yamaga xG
1.08Renofa Yamaguchi xG
56%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.1 – 1.1 Renofa Yamaguchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Renofa Yamaguchi to win✓
38%
2.60
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.67
Draw no bet
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Matsumoto Yamaga +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Renofa Yamaguchi to score first✓
45%
2.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.79
–
Recent results
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
WLLWLW
21 Oct
vs Thespakusatsu Gunma
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Parceiro Nagano
1–2
L
14 Oct
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Kagoshima United
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Renofa Yamaguchi – last 6
LWWWDW
21 Oct
@ Ehime FC
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Kochi United
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Tochigi SC
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ FC Gifu
2–0
W
26 Sep
vs Sagamihara
2–2
D
20 Sep
@ Kanazawa
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Renofa Yamaguchi.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Renofa Yamaguchi 38%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–1 Renofa Yamaguchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi (J3 League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
