Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Falkirk to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFalkirk to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceFalkirk or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Falkirk welcome Kilmarnock to Falkirk Stadium for a Premiership fixture on Saturday 24 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Falkirk are 3rd, among the top four, on 21 points after 13 matches; Kilmarnock are 12th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Falkirk, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Hibernian, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Kilmarnock, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Motherwell, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Falkirk 1.9 xG, Kilmarnock 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Falkirk 62%, draw 21%, Kilmarnock 18%.
Lower-risk option: Falkirk or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Falkirk to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Falkirk or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Falkirk 1–0 Kilmarnock. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Falkirk62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.50
Kilmarnock18%fair 5.69 · @3.75
2.83Expected goals
1.93Falkirk xG
0.90Kilmarnock xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Falkirk 1.9 – 0.9 Kilmarnock expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Falkirk to win✓
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Falkirk or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.57
Draw no bet
Falkirk (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Falkirk -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Falkirk to score first✓
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Falkirk ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Falkirk / FT Falkirk✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Falkirk – last 6
WLDWDL
17 Oct
@ Hibernian
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Dundee
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ ST Johnstone
1–1
D
15 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Dundee Utd
1–1
D
2 Sep
vs Rangers
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Kilmarnock – last 6
WLDWDD
17 Oct
vs Motherwell
3–2
W
10 Oct
@ Rangers
1–3
L
19 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
1–1
D
15 Sep
@ Hibernian
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Aberdeen
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Aberdeen
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Falkirk and Kilmarnock.
Our pick is Falkirk or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
On our numbers Falkirk have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kilmarnock 18%.
How many goals will there be in Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Our predicted score is Falkirk 1–0 Kilmarnock, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Falkirk vs Kilmarnock?
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock (Premiership) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Falkirk Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
