Value bet: Stenhousemuir to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultStenhousemuir to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.28
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Stenhousemuir travel to face Ayr Utd on Friday 25 September in the Championship, with Somerset Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Ayr Utd are 7th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Stenhousemuir are 4th (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Ayr Utd, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Queen's Park, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Stenhousemuir, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Arbroath, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Stenhousemuir, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.7 for Ayr Utd.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ayr Utd 1.0 xG, Stenhousemuir 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ayr Utd 38%, draw 23%, Stenhousemuir 39%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Stenhousemuir to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (53%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ayr Utd 0–1 Stenhousemuir. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ayr Utd38%fair 2.66 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10
Stenhousemuir39%fair 2.55 · @3.10
2.00Expected goals
0.99Ayr Utd xG
1.01Stenhousemuir xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ayr Utd 1.0 – 1.0 Stenhousemuir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stenhousemuir to win✓
39%
2.55
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.85
Draw no bet
Stenhousemuir (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Ayr Utd +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Stenhousemuir to score first✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.28
–
Recent results
Ayr Utd – last 6
WLLDLL
18 Sep
@ Queen's Park
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Inverness CT
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Partick
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Morton
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Raith Rovers
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Kilmarnock
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Stenhousemuir – last 6
WWLWWW
19 Sep
vs Arbroath
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Partick
1–0
W
11 Sep
vs Heart Of Midlothian
0–3
L
4 Sep
@ Livingston
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Inverness CT
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Queen's Park
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ayr Utd and Stenhousemuir.
What is the prediction for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
On our numbers Ayr Utd have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Stenhousemuir 39%.
How many goals will there be in Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Our predicted score is Ayr Utd 0–1 Stenhousemuir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir?
Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir (Championship) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Somerset Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
