Hull City 18%Draw 22%Aston Villa 60%Expected goals 0.58 – 1.42
82%
Betarazi pick
Aston Villa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.19
Hull City vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Saturday 5 September: Hull City v Aston Villa in the Premier League, played at MKM Stadium. In the table, Hull City are 13th, lower half, on 11 points after 10 matches; Aston Villa are 10th (upper half) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Hull City, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Coventry, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Aston Villa, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arsenal, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 4 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Hull City, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.5 for Aston Villa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hull City 0.6 xG, Aston Villa 1.4 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hull City 18%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 60%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Aston Villa to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Aston Villa or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hull City 0–1 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hull City18%fair 5.71 · @4.00
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.40
Aston Villa60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
2.00Expected goals
0.58Hull City xG
1.42Aston Villa xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–119%
0–214%
0–014%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Hull City 0.6 – 1.4 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.95
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Hull City +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.19
–
Recent results
Hull City – last 6
WDWDLD
29 Aug
@ Coventry
1–0
W
25 Aug
@ Stoke City
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Manchester United
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Nice
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Kasımpaşa
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
LLLLLW
31 Aug
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Brighton
0–4
L
15 Aug
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
1–2
L
12 Aug
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
7 Aug
@ Bayern München
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ BG Pathum United
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hull City and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Aston Villa or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Hull City have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aston Villa 60%.
How many goals will there be in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Hull City 0–1 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Hull City vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at MKM Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
