Newcastle 44%Draw 21%Aston Villa 35%Expected goals 1.77 – 1.56
66%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultNewcastle to win ✗44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Premier League brings Newcastle against Aston Villa at St. James' Park. Kick-off: 17:30 WAT. In the table, Newcastle are 12th, lower half, on 12 points after 10 matches; Aston Villa are 10th (upper half) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newcastle, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Coventry, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Aston Villa, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Fenerbahçe, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newcastle 1.8 xG, Aston Villa 1.6 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newcastle 44%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 35%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newcastle44%fair 2.29 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.50
Aston Villa35%fair 2.84 · @2.90
3.33Expected goals
1.77Newcastle xG
1.56Aston Villa xG
66%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Newcastle 1.8 – 1.6 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✗
44%
2.29
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.52
1.55
Draw no bet
Newcastle (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Aston Villa +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Newcastle to score first✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.46
–
Recent results
Newcastle – last 6
LWLWDW
12 Oct
@ Coventry
1–4
L
19 Sep
vs Hull City
2–1
W
14 Sep
@ Leeds
1–4
L
8 Sep
@ Millwall
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Bournemouth
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Tottenham
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WDWWWL
14 Oct
vs Fenerbahçe
6–0
W
10 Oct
vs Brentford
2–2
D
2 Oct
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
19 Sep
@ Tottenham
3–2
W
16 Sep
@ Coventry
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Nottingham Forest
1–2
L
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 35%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at St. James' Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
