Value bet: Pogoń Siedlce to win @ 2.70 – our chance 44% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPogoń Siedlce to win ✗44% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 21 August the I Liga brings Lechia Gdansk against Pogoń Siedlce at Polsat Plus Arena. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Lechia Gdansk are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 14 matches; Pogoń Siedlce are 10th (lower half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Lechia Gdansk, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ruch Chorzów, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 4 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Pogoń Siedlce, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Polonia Warszawa, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pogoń Siedlce, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.2 for Lechia Gdansk.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lechia Gdansk 1.2 xG, Pogoń Siedlce 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lechia Gdansk 34%, draw 21%, Pogoń Siedlce 44%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Pogoń Siedlce to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lechia Gdansk34%fair 2.92 · @2.30
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.40
Pogoń Siedlce44%fair 2.26 · @2.70
2.70Expected goals
1.24Lechia Gdansk xG
1.46Pogoń Siedlce xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Lechia Gdansk 1.2 – 1.5 Pogoń Siedlce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogoń Siedlce to win✗
44%
2.26
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.60
Draw no bet
Pogoń Siedlce (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Lechia Gdansk +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Pogoń Siedlce to score first✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogoń Siedlce / FT Pogoń Siedlce✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Lechia Gdansk – last 6
LDLLLL
14 Aug
@ Ruch Chorzów
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Podbeskidzie
2–2
D
31 Jul
vs Warta Poznań
0–3
L
25 Jul
vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0–3
L
4 Jul
vs Olimpia Grudziądz
1–3
L
27 Jun
vs Petrolul Ploiesti
0–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Pogoń Siedlce – last 6
WDLDWD
15 Aug
vs Polonia Warszawa
1–0
W
7 Aug
@ Polonia Bytom
2–2
D
1 Aug
vs Nieciecza
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs ŁKS Łódź
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Radomiak Radom
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogoń Siedlce.
What is the prediction for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
On our numbers Lechia Gdansk have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pogoń Siedlce 44%.
How many goals will there be in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Our predicted score is Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce (I Liga) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Polsat Plus Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
