Polonia Warszawa v Lechia Gdansk Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPolonia Warszawa to win ✗62% · @1.55

Double chancePolonia Warszawa or draw ✗82% · @1.17

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.60

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85

Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:30 WAT, Saturday 29 August: Polonia Warszawa v Lechia Gdansk in the I Liga, played at Stadion Polonii. In the table, Polonia Warszawa are 1st, leading the league, on 25 points after 14 matches; Lechia Gdansk are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Polonia Warszawa, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Nieciecza, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Lechia Gdansk, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Pogoń Siedlce, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Polonia Warszawa, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Lechia Gdansk.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Polonia Warszawa 1.7 xG, Lechia Gdansk 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Polonia Warszawa 62%, draw 20%, Lechia Gdansk 18%.
Lower-risk option: Polonia Warszawa or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Polonia Warszawa to win (62%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Lechia Gdansk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Polonia Warszawa62%fair 1.60 · @1.55

Draw20%fair 5.00 · @4.00

Lechia Gdansk18%fair 5.68 · @4.60

2.40Expected goals

1.68Polonia Warszawa xG

0.72Lechia Gdansk xG

57%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

2–013%

1–111%

2–19%

0–09%

3–07%

From our goals model: Polonia Warszawa 1.7 – 0.7 Lechia Gdansk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Polonia Warszawa to win ✗	62%	1.60	1.55
Double chance	Polonia Warszawa or draw ✗	82%	1.21	1.17
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	57%	1.76	1.60
Draw no bet	Polonia Warszawa (draw no bet) ✗	78%	1.28	–
Asian handicap	Polonia Warszawa -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	60%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.76	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Polonia Warszawa to score first	64%	1.57	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.30	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Polonia Warszawa / FT Polonia Warszawa ✗	37%	2.67	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.85	–

Polonia Warszawa – last 6

WLDWWW

22 Aug	@ Nieciecza	3–1	W
15 Aug	@ Pogoń Siedlce	0–1	L
7 Aug	vs Ruch Chorzów	1–1	D
1 Aug	vs Unia Skierniewice	3–1	W
26 Jul	@ Puszcza Niepołomice	1–0	W
18 Jul	vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz	3–2	W

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Lechia Gdansk – last 6

WLDLLL

21 Aug	vs Pogoń Siedlce	1–0	W
14 Aug	@ Ruch Chorzów	0–1	L
8 Aug	@ Podbeskidzie	2–2	D
31 Jul	vs Warta Poznań	0–3	L
25 Jul	vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	0–3	L
4 Jul	vs Olimpia Grudziądz	1–3	L

0.7Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Warszawa	14	7	4	3	+8	25
2	ŁKS Łódź	14	7	4	3	+5	25
3	Polonia Bytom	14	6	6	2	+4	24
4	Lechia Gdansk	14	7	1	6	+3	22
5	Ruch Chorzów	14	6	4	4	+3	22
6	Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	+2	22
7	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	14	6	3	5	+6	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	+7	20
9	Warta Poznań	14	6	1	7	0	19
10	Pogoń Siedlce	14	5	4	5	0	19
11	Stal Mielec	14	5	4	5	-8	19
12	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	+2	18
13	Stal Rzeszów	14	5	3	6	-7	18
14	Chrobry Głogów	14	3	6	5	-2	15
15	Podbeskidzie	14	2	9	3	-3	15
16	Puszcza Niepołomice	14	4	2	8	-4	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	-6	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	-10	12

Team

Pts

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

-8

-7

-2

-3

-4

-6

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Our pick is Polonia Warszawa to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

On our numbers Polonia Warszawa have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lechia Gdansk 18%.

How many goals will there be in Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Our predicted score is Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Lechia Gdansk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk (I Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Polonii.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Polonia Warszawa v Lechia Gdansk: numbers & prediction