Value bet: Baltika to win @ 2.86 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBaltika to win ✗40% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.37
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Akhmat vs Baltika: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Premier League brings Akhmat against Baltika at Akhmat-Arena. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, Akhmat are 12th, lower half, on 14 points after 14 matches; Baltika are 9th (lower half) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Akhmat, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Akron, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Baltika, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Zenit, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Apr 2026) it ended Akhmat 1–1 Baltika. The last 2 head-to-heads: Akhmat 0 wins, Baltika 0, draws 2. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Akhmat 1.3 xG, Baltika 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Akhmat 36%, draw 23%, Baltika 40%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.86.
Price worth noting: Baltika to win @2.86 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Akhmat 1–1 Baltika. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Akhmat36%fair 2.76 · @2.62
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.22
Baltika40%fair 2.48 · @2.86
2.65Expected goals
1.28Akhmat xG
1.37Baltika xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Akhmat 1.3 – 1.4 Baltika expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Akhmat vs Baltika?
On our numbers Akhmat have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Baltika 40%.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs Baltika?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs Baltika?
Our predicted score is Akhmat 1–1 Baltika, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Akhmat vs Baltika?
Akhmat vs Baltika (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
