Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.26 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.26Odds
1
Value bet: Krylia Sovetov to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKrylia Sovetov to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceKrylia Sovetov or draw ✗81% · @1.26
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Krylia Sovetov v Fakel in the Premier League, played at Solidarnost Samara Arena. In the table, Krylia Sovetov are 7th, upper half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Fakel are 16th (in the drop zone) with 6. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Krylia Sovetov, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Baltika, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Fakel, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FC Krasnodar, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Krylia Sovetov 1.8 xG, Fakel 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Krylia Sovetov 61%, draw 20%, Fakel 19%.
Lower-risk option: Krylia Sovetov or draw (81%) at 1.26.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.79.
Price worth noting: Krylia Sovetov to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Krylia Sovetov or draw (81%, odds 1.26 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Krylia Sovetov61%fair 1.65 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.55
Fakel19%fair 5.29 · @4.05
2.63Expected goals
1.78Krylia Sovetov xG
0.85Fakel xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Krylia Sovetov 1.8 – 0.9 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Krylia Sovetov to win✗
61%
1.65
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Krylia Sovetov or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.26
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.80
1.79
Draw no bet
Krylia Sovetov (draw no bet)✗
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Fakel +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.07
First team to score
Krylia Sovetov to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Krylia Sovetov ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Krylia Sovetov / FT Krylia Sovetov✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Krylia Sovetov – last 6
LDDWDD
14 Oct
vs Baltika
0–2
L
10 Oct
vs Spartak Moscow
1–1
D
16 Sep
@ Lokomotiv
1–1
D
11 Sep
vs Rodina Moskva
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Krasnodar
2–2
D
2 Sep
@ Baltika
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 6
WLWLDL
13 Oct
@ FC Krasnodar
2–0
W
10 Oct
vs Lokomotiv
0–5
L
3 Oct
vs FC Vitebsk
1–0
W
16 Sep
@ Spartak Moscow
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Baltika
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ FC Rostov
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Krylia Sovetov and Fakel.
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our pick is Krylia Sovetov or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
On our numbers Krylia Sovetov have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fakel 19%.
How many goals will there be in Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Krylia Sovetov 1–0 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel?
Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
