Value bet: Morocco to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNetherlands to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.11
Netherlands vs Morocco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Tuesday 30 June: Netherlands v Morocco in the World Cup, played at Estadio BBVA.
Current form
Netherlands, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tunisia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Morocco, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Haiti, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Morocco, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Netherlands.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Netherlands 1.4 xG, Morocco 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 50% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Netherlands 38%, draw 27%, Morocco 35%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Morocco to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.40 – longer than our fair 1.36, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Netherlands 1–1 Morocco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Netherlands38%fair 2.62 · @2.30
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.05
Morocco35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
2.95Expected goals
1.45Netherlands xG
1.50Morocco xG
53%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Netherlands 1.4 – 1.5 Morocco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✗
38%
2.62
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.85
Draw no bet
Netherlands (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Netherlands +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.07
First team to score
Morocco to score first
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Morocco / FT Morocco✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.11
–
Recent results
Netherlands – last 6
WWDWLD
26 Jun
@ Tunisia
3–1
W
20 Jun
vs Sweden
5–1
W
14 Jun
vs Japan
2–2
D
8 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
2–1
W
3 Jun
vs Algeria
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Ecuador
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Morocco – last 6
WWDDWW
24 Jun
vs Haiti
4–2
W
19 Jun
@ Scotland
1–0
W
13 Jun
@ Brazil
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Norway
1–1
D
2 Jun
vs Madagascar
4–0
W
31 Mar
vs Paraguay
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Netherlands and Morocco.
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Netherlands vs Morocco?
On our numbers Netherlands have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Morocco 35%.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Morocco?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our predicted score is Netherlands 1–1 Morocco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Netherlands vs Morocco?
Netherlands vs Morocco (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 30 June 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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