Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFrance to win ✓69% · @1.28
Double chanceFrance or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
France vs Sweden: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:00 WAT, Tuesday 30 June: France v Sweden in the World Cup, played at MetLife Stadium.
Current form
France, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Norway, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Sweden, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Japan, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours France, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Sweden.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give France 2.5 xG, Sweden 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – France 69%, draw 18%, Sweden 13%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was France to win (69%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: France 2–1 Sweden. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
France69%fair 1.44 · @1.28
Draw18%fair 5.59 · @5.60
Sweden13%fair 7.76 · @9.40
3.63Expected goals
2.54France xG
1.09Sweden xG
58%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: France 2.5 – 1.1 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
France to win✓
69%
1.44
1.28
Double chance
France or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
France (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
France -1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
First team to score
France to score first✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
France ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT France / FT France✓
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
France – last 6
WWWWLW
26 Jun
@ Norway
4–1
W
22 Jun
vs Iraq
3–0
W
16 Jun
vs Senegal
3–1
W
8 Jun
vs Northern Ireland
3–1
W
4 Jun
vs Ivory Coast
1–2
L
29 Mar
@ Colombia
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sweden – last 6
DLWDLW
26 Jun
@ Japan
1–1
D
20 Jun
@ Netherlands
1–5
L
15 Jun
vs Tunisia
5–1
W
4 Jun
vs Greece
2–2
D
1 Jun
@ Norway
1–3
L
31 Mar
vs Poland
3–2
W
2.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Sweden.
Our pick is France to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win France vs Sweden?
On our numbers France have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sweden 13%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Sweden?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Sweden?
Our predicted score is France 2–1 Sweden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is France vs Sweden?
France vs Sweden (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 30 June 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at MetLife Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Netherlands1
Morocco1
Ivory Coast1
Norway2