Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.79 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSpartak Moscow to win ✓72% · @1.28
Double chanceSpartak Moscow or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.95
Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Rodina Moskva travel to face Spartak Moscow on Wednesday 2 September in the Cup, with Lukoil Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 18:45 WAT.
Current form
Spartak Moscow, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC Orenburg, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Rodina Moskva, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Baltika, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Spartak Moscow, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Rodina Moskva.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Jul 2026) it ended Spartak Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spartak Moscow 2.9 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.1 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spartak Moscow 72%, draw 18%, Rodina Moskva 10%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.79.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.79 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.41). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spartak Moscow 2–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spartak Moscow72%fair 1.38 · @1.28
Draw18%fair 5.55 · @6.15
Rodina Moskva10%fair 10.29 · @10.25
4.06Expected goals
2.93Spartak Moscow xG
1.13Rodina Moskva xG
62%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
3–18%
2–07%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%
From our goals model: Spartak Moscow 2.9 – 1.1 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Spartak Moscow have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Rodina Moskva 10%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Spartak Moscow 2–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva?
Spartak Moscow vs Rodina Moskva (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Lukoil Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Orenburg1
Rubin1
Zenit3
Dinamo Makhachkala0
Baltika0
Krylia Sovetov0