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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

FC Orenburg v Rodina Moskva: numbers & prediction

Cup · Russia · Gazovik Stadium

FC Orenburg

WDWWL
2–1
FT

Rodina Moskva

WDLLL
FC Orenburg 56%Draw 23%Rodina Moskva 21% Expected goals 2.41 – 1.48
79%
Betarazi pick

FC Orenburg or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.27Odds
O2.5

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultFC Orenburg to win ✓56% · @1.89
Double chanceFC Orenburg or draw ✓79% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.37

FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

14:00 WAT, Wednesday 28 October: FC Orenburg v Rodina Moskva in the Cup, played at Gazovik Stadium.

Current form

FC Orenburg, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Akhmat, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Rodina Moskva, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Fakel, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours FC Orenburg, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Rodina Moskva.

Head to head

When they last met (19 Oct 2026) it ended Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg. The last 2 head-to-heads: FC Orenburg 1 win, Rodina Moskva 0, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC Orenburg 2.4 xG, Rodina Moskva 1.5 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – FC Orenburg 56%, draw 23%, Rodina Moskva 21%.
  • Lower-risk option: FC Orenburg or draw (79%) at 1.27.
  • GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.62.
  • Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.72 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 65%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was FC Orenburg or draw (79%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Orenburg 2–1 Rodina Moskva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC Orenburg56%fair 1.78 · @1.89
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.78
Rodina Moskva21%fair 4.82 · @3.96
3.89Expected goals
2.41FC Orenburg xG
1.48Rodina Moskva xG
65%Both score
65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
2–26%
2–06%
1–25%

From our goals model: FC Orenburg 2.4 – 1.5 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFC Orenburg to win ✓56%1.781.89 ▲
Double chanceFC Orenburg or draw ✓79%1.261.27
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓65%1.541.62
Draw no betFC Orenburg (draw no bet) ✓73%1.37–
Asian handicapRodina Moskva +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓63%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84%1.201.19
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓65%1.541.72 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓56%1.801.40
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓73%1.371.12
First team to scoreFC Orenburg to score first61%1.65–
Half-time resultFC Orenburg ahead at half-time ✗45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT FC Orenburg / FT FC Orenburg ✗38%2.65–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%11.37–

Recent results

FC Orenburg – last 6

WDWWLD
23 Oct@ Akhmat1–0W
19 Oct@ Rodina Moskva2–2D
15 Oct@ Rubin4–1W
10 Octvs Dinamo Makhachkala4–0W
3 Oct@ Lokomotiv0–2L
17 Sepvs FC Krasnodar0–0D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Rodina Moskva – last 6

WDLLLD
24 Oct@ Fakel1–0W
19 Octvs FC Orenburg2–2D
15 Octvs Spartak Moscow2–4L
11 Oct@ CSKA Moscow0–3L
4 Oct@ Dynamo2–3L
16 Sepvs Rubin1–1D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

19 Oct 2026Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg2–2
18 Aug 2026Rodina Moskva v FC Orenburg1–4
FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva head-to-head page →

More Cup predictions

League hub
FT FC Rostov6 Akron1 164%1.85X22%3.62214%4.40 1.8–0.7xG 1XFC Rostov or draw 86%@1.23 ✓
FT Spartak Moscow1 Rubin0 167%1.43X19%4.50214%8.00 2.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 81%@1.23 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

Our pick is FC Orenburg or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.

Who will win FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

On our numbers FC Orenburg have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Rodina Moskva 21%.

How many goals will there be in FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

Our predicted score is FC Orenburg 2–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.

When is FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Gazovik Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.