Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Stevenage to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultStevenage to win ✗39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.96
Burton Albion vs Stevenage: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 15 August the League One brings Burton Albion against Stevenage at Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Burton Albion are 15th, lower half, on 17 points after 14 matches; Stevenage are 16th (lower half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Burton Albion, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Blackburn, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Stevenage, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Wycombe, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Stevenage, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Burton Albion.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burton Albion 1.1 xG, Stevenage 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burton Albion 36%, draw 24%, Stevenage 39%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Stevenage to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burton Albion 1–1 Stevenage. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burton Albion36%fair 2.74 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Stevenage39%fair 2.53 · @3.10
2.26Expected goals
1.10Burton Albion xG
1.16Stevenage xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Burton Albion 1.1 – 1.2 Stevenage expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stevenage to win✗
39%
2.53
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.95
Draw no bet
Stevenage (draw no bet)
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Burton Albion +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Stevenage to score first
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage✗
21%
4.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.96
–
Recent results
Burton Albion – last 6
LWDLLD
8 Aug
vs Blackburn
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Derby
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Solihull Moors
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
18 Jul
vs Leicester
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Alfreton Town
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Stevenage – last 6
WWWLDL
7 Aug
@ Wycombe
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Colchester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Millwall
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs West Ham
0–5
L
18 Jul
@ FC Andorra
0–0
D
13 May
@ Stockport County
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burton Albion and Stevenage.
What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
On our numbers Burton Albion have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stevenage 39%.
How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our predicted score is Burton Albion 1–1 Stevenage, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage (League One) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
