AFC Wimbledon 32%Draw 24%Stevenage 44%Expected goals 0.98 – 1.22
50%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.99 · bookmaker 1.85
3/10Rating
1.85Odds
2
Value bet: Stevenage to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultStevenage to win44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–28% · fair 12.38
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 3 October the League One brings AFC Wimbledon against Stevenage at Plough Lane. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, AFC Wimbledon are 18th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Stevenage are 16th (lower half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
AFC Wimbledon, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cambridge United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Stevenage, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Walsall, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AFC Wimbledon 1.0 xG, Stevenage 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AFC Wimbledon 32%, draw 24%, Stevenage 44%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Stevenage to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 44%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Stevenage. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AFC Wimbledon32%fair 3.14 · @2.90
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.00
Stevenage44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
2.20Expected goals
0.98AFC Wimbledon xG
1.22Stevenage xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: AFC Wimbledon 1.0 – 1.2 Stevenage expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stevenage to win
44%
2.28
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.85
Draw no bet
Stevenage (draw no bet)
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
AFC Wimbledon +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Stevenage to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stevenage / FT Stevenage
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.38
–
Recent results
AFC Wimbledon – last 6
DDWWLW
26 Sep
@ Cambridge United
1–1
D
17 Sep
vs Milton Keynes Dons
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Doncaster
1–0
W
7 Sep
@ Bromley
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Burton Albion
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Wigan
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Stevenage – last 6
WLWWDD
22 Sep
@ Walsall
6–1
W
19 Sep
@ Leyton Orient
0–1
L
10 Sep
vs Luton
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Barnsley
5–1
W
1 Sep
@ Peterborough
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Doncaster
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage.
What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
On our numbers AFC Wimbledon have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Stevenage 44%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our predicted score is AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Stevenage, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage (League One) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Plough Lane.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
