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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Portugal v Croatia: numbers & prediction

World Cup · World · BMO Field

Portugal

DWDWW
2–1
FT

Croatia

WWLWL
Portugal 64%Draw 21%Croatia 15% Expected goals 2.16 – 0.87
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.33Odds
1

Value bet: Portugal to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultPortugal to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.20

Portugal vs Croatia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Portugal welcome Croatia to BMO Field for a World Cup fixture on Friday 3 July (00:00 WAT).

Current form

Portugal, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Colombia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Croatia, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ghana, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Portugal, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Croatia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Portugal 2.2 xG, Croatia 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Portugal 64%, draw 21%, Croatia 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Portugal or draw (85%) at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
  • Price worth noting: Portugal to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portugal 2–0 Croatia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Portugal64%fair 1.55 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.50
Croatia15%fair 6.77 · @4.85
3.02Expected goals
2.16Portugal xG
0.87Croatia xG
50%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

From our goals model: Portugal 2.2 – 0.9 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPortugal to win ✓64%1.551.73 ▲
Double chancePortugal or draw ✓85%1.171.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓50%1.981.85
Draw no betPortugal (draw no bet) ✓81%1.23–
Asian handicapPortugal -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.321.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓53%1.881.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓68%1.461.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓83%1.201.10
First team to scorePortugal to score first68%1.47–
Half-time resultPortugal ahead at half-time ✗49%2.06–
Half-time / full-timeHT Portugal / FT Portugal ✗44%2.29–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10%10.20–

Recent results

Portugal – last 6

DWDWWW
28 Jun@ Colombia0–0D
23 Junvs Uzbekistan5–0W
17 Junvs Congo DR1–1D
10 Junvs Nigeria2–1W
6 Junvs Chile2–1W
1 Apr@ USA2–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Croatia – last 6

WWLWLL
27 Junvs Ghana2–1W
24 Jun@ Panama1–0W
17 Jun@ England2–4L
7 Junvs Slovenia2–1W
2 Junvs Belgium0–2L
1 Apr@ Brazil1–3L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Portugal and Croatia.

Portugal vs Croatia head-to-head page →

More World Cup predictions

FT Switzerland2 Algeria0 155%1.86X24%3.40222%4.20 1.9–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.38 ✓
FT Australia1 Egypt1 Pens 2–4 130%3.25X28%2.92242%2.38 1.0–1.2xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 66%@1.40 ✓
FT Argentina1 Cape Verde Islands1 AET 3–2 176%1.16X16%6.8029%16.00 2.2–0.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portugal vs Croatia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Portugal vs Croatia?

On our numbers Portugal have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Croatia 15%.

How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Croatia?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Croatia?

Our predicted score is Portugal 2–0 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Portugal vs Croatia?

Portugal vs Croatia (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 3 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at BMO Field.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.