Riga Mariners 35%Draw 32%BFC Daugavpils 33%Expected goals 2.32 – 1.93
66%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 4.00 – our chance 32% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRiga Mariners to win ✗35% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗68% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.52
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Riga Mariners welcome BFC Daugavpils for a Cup fixture on Saturday 11 July (16:00 WAT).
Current form
Riga Mariners, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over JDFS Alberts, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
BFC Daugavpils, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over FK Liepaja, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Riga Mariners, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for BFC Daugavpils.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Riga Mariners 2.3 xG, BFC Daugavpils 1.9 xG – a total near 4.3. That is an open game on paper: 80% for three or more goals, 66% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Riga Mariners 35%, draw 32%, BFC Daugavpils 33%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Draw @4.00 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga Mariners 2–1 BFC Daugavpils. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Riga Mariners35%fair 2.84 · @2.75
Draw32%fair 3.11 · @4.00
BFC Daugavpils33%fair 3.07 · @2.00
4.25Expected goals
2.32Riga Mariners xG
1.93BFC Daugavpils xG
66%Both score
80%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–17%
2–27%
1–16%
1–26%
3–16%
3–26%
From our goals model: Riga Mariners 2.3 – 1.9 BFC Daugavpils expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga Mariners to win✗
35%
2.84
2.75
Double chance
Either team to win✗
68%
1.47
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.51
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Riga Mariners (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
BFC Daugavpils +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
First team to score
Riga Mariners to score first
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Riga Mariners ahead at half-time✓
39%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga Mariners / FT Riga Mariners✗
30%
3.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.52
–
Recent results
Riga Mariners – last 6
WWWWDD
4 Jul
@ JDFS Alberts
4–0
W
27 Jun
vs Mārupe
2–0
W
20 Jun
vs JDFS Alberts
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Skanste
2–0
W
2 May
@ Rēzekne FA
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Riga FC II
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
BFC Daugavpils – last 6
WLDWDD
4 Jul
vs FK Liepaja
3–1
W
30 Jun
@ Rīgas FS
1–3
L
25 Jun
vs Riga
0–0
D
20 Jun
vs Grobiņa
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Super Nova
0–0
D
12 Jun
@ Tukums
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga Mariners and BFC Daugavpils.
What is the prediction for Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
On our numbers Riga Mariners have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 32% and BFC Daugavpils 33%.
How many goals will there be in Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 80% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our predicted score is Riga Mariners 2–1 BFC Daugavpils, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils?
Riga Mariners vs BFC Daugavpils (Cup) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cup · Latvia
Auda1
FK Liepaja0
Tukums1
Super Nova2