Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.48 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.48Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗61% · @1.31
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗81% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.04
Cancún vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cancún welcome Toluca for a Friendlies Clubs fixture on Saturday 4 July (02:00 WAT).
Current form
Cancún, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Monterrey, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to CF Pachuca, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cancún 1.5 xG, Toluca 2.2 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cancún 19%, draw 20%, Toluca 61%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cancún 1–2 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cancún19%fair 5.26 · @9.00
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @5.10
Toluca61%fair 1.64 · @1.31
3.69Expected goals
1.47Cancún xG
2.22Toluca xG
61%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
2–27%
0–26%
2–16%
From our goals model: Cancún 1.5 – 2.2 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cancún
Toluca
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
-15%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.40
1.62
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
61%
1.64
1.31
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Cancún +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.17
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.25
First team to score
Toluca to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.04
–
Recent results
Cancún – last 6
LDLWDW
21 Jun
vs Monterrey
1–4
L
4 May
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
1 May
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
27 Apr
vs Tapatío
1–0
W
24 Apr
@ Tapatío
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atlante FC
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
LWLLWL
11 May
@ CF Pachuca
0–2
L
7 May
vs Los Angeles FC
4–0
W
4 May
vs CF Pachuca
0–1
L
30 Apr
@ Los Angeles FC
1–2
L
26 Apr
vs Leon
4–1
W
23 Apr
@ Mazatlán
3–4
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cancún and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Cancún vs Toluca?
On our numbers Cancún have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca 61%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cancún vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Cancún 1–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Cancún vs Toluca?
Cancún vs Toluca (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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