Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.47 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.47Odds
2
Value bet: Chełmianka Chełm to win @ 2.35 – our chance 49% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChełmianka Chełm to win ✓49% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.54
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 1 August: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów v Chełmianka Chełm in the III Liga Group 4. In the table, Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów are 18th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 16 matches; Chełmianka Chełm are 1st (leading the league) with 40. There are 28 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Hetman Zamosc, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Chełmianka Chełm, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Hetman Zamosc, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Chełmianka Chełm, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.0 xG, Chełmianka Chełm 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 28%, draw 23%, Chełmianka Chełm 49%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.54.
Price worth noting: Chełmianka Chełm to win @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (66%, odds 1.47). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 Chełmianka Chełm. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów28%fair 3.57 · @2.65
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.60
Chełmianka Chełm49%fair 2.03 · @2.35
2.84Expected goals
1.04Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów xG
1.80Chełmianka Chełm xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
1–36%
From our goals model: Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1.0 – 1.8 Chełmianka Chełm expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chełmianka Chełm to win✓
49%
2.03
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.54
Draw no bet
Chełmianka Chełm (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.47
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
1.17
First team to score
Chełmianka Chełm to score first✓
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Chełmianka Chełm ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chełmianka Chełm / FT Chełmianka Chełm✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów – last 6
DLWLWL
25 Jul
@ Hetman Zamosc
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Hutnik Kraków
1–3
L
29 May
vs Star Starachowice
3–1
W
23 May
@ Wisła Kraków II
1–3
L
13 May
@ Świdniczanka Świdnik
3–0
W
3 May
vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chełmianka Chełm – last 6
WLWWDW
18 Jul
vs Hetman Zamosc
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ Górnik Łęczna
1–4
L
30 May
@ Wisłoka Dębica
2–1
W
23 May
vs Naprzód
2–0
W
17 May
@ Cracovia Kraków II
3–3
D
13 May
vs KSZO 1929
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów and Chełmianka Chełm.
What is the prediction for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.47.
Who will win Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm?
On our numbers Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chełmianka Chełm 49%.
How many goals will there be in Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Our predicted score is Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 1–1 Chełmianka Chełm, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm?
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
