Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.38Odds
2
Value bet: Kalisz to win @ 1.78 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKalisz to win ✗63% · @1.78
Double chanceKalisz or draw ✗85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Lipno Stęszew v Kalisz in the III Liga Group 2. In the table, Lipno Stęszew are 16th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 16 matches; Kalisz are 10th (lower half) with 20.
Current form
Lipno Stęszew, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Stargard Szczeciński, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Kalisz, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Lech Poznań II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lipno Stęszew 1.0 xG, Kalisz 2.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lipno Stęszew 15%, draw 22%, Kalisz 63%.
Lower-risk option: Kalisz or draw (85%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Kalisz to win @1.78 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lipno Stęszew 0–2 Kalisz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lipno Stęszew15%fair 6.51 · @3.66
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.48
Kalisz63%fair 1.60 · @1.78
3.07Expected goals
0.96Lipno Stęszew xG
2.10Kalisz xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
1–210%
0–110%
1–19%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Lipno Stęszew 1.0 – 2.1 Kalisz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kalisz to win✗
63%
1.60
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Kalisz or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.60
Draw no bet
Kalisz (draw no bet)✗
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Kalisz -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.12
First team to score
Kalisz to score first✗
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Kalisz ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kalisz / FT Kalisz✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Lipno Stęszew – last 6
WLDWLL
10 Oct
@ Stargard Szczeciński
4–3
W
3 Oct
vs Chemik Bydgoszcz
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Victoria Września
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Bałtyk Koszalin
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Kotwica Kórnik
1–4
L
5 Sep
vs Flota Świnoujście
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Kalisz – last 6
LLWDDD
10 Oct
vs Lech Poznań II
2–4
L
3 Oct
@ Stargard Szczeciński
0–5
L
27 Sep
vs Kluczevia Stargard
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Chemik Bydgoszcz
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Wda Świecie
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Victoria Września
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lipno Stęszew and Kalisz.
What is the prediction for Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz?
On our numbers Lipno Stęszew have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Kalisz 63%.
How many goals will there be in Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz?
Our predicted score is Lipno Stęszew 0–2 Kalisz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz?
Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
