Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlmeria to win ✓61% · @1.57
Double chanceAlmeria or draw ✓84% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.42
Almeria vs Burgos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:15 WAT, Saturday 3 October: Almeria v Burgos in the Segunda División, played at UD Almería Stadium. In the table, Almeria are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 13 matches; Burgos are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
Almeria, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mallorca, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Burgos, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Eldense, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almeria 1.7 xG, Burgos 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almeria 61%, draw 23%, Burgos 16%.
Lower-risk option: Almeria or draw (84%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Almeria to win (61%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almeria 1–0 Burgos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almeria61%fair 1.65 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.70
Burgos16%fair 6.11 · @5.00
2.36Expected goals
1.65Almeria xG
0.71Burgos xG
47%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.7 – 0.7 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win✓
61%
1.65
1.57
Double chance
Almeria or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Draw no bet
Almeria (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Burgos +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Almeria to score first✗
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.42
–
Recent results
Almeria – last 6
WWWWLL
27 Sep
@ Mallorca
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs Celta de Vigo II
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Cordoba
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Cadiz
3–2
W
29 Aug
@ Sabadell
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Tenerife
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WWWDDL
27 Sep
vs Eldense
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Las Palmas
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs AD Ceuta FC
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Oviedo
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Real Sociedad II
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almeria and Burgos.
Our pick is Almeria to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Almeria vs Burgos?
On our numbers Almeria have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Burgos 16%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–0 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Burgos?
Almeria vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
