Value bet: Osasuna to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlaves to win ✓43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.74
Alaves vs Osasuna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Sunday 6 September: Alaves v Osasuna in the La Liga, played at Estadio Mendizorrotza. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Osasuna are 16th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Villarreal, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Osasuna, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Getafe, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Alaves, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Osasuna.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Alaves 2–2 Osasuna.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 0.9 xG, Osasuna 0.7 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 77%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 43%, draw 24%, Osasuna 33%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Osasuna to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 0–0 Osasuna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves43%fair 2.33 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.00
Osasuna33%fair 3.06 · @3.40
1.67Expected goals
0.93Alaves xG
0.74Osasuna xG
49%Both score
23%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–019%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Alaves 0.9 – 0.7 Osasuna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
On our numbers Alaves have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Osasuna 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Osasuna?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 23% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our predicted score is Alaves 0–0 Osasuna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves vs Osasuna (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
