Atletico Madrid 68%Draw 23%Osasuna 9%Expected goals 2.16 – 0.74
68%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Madrid to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.40Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓68% · @1.40
Double chanceAtletico Madrid or draw ✓91% · @1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Madrid welcome Osasuna to Riyadh Air Metropolitano for a La Liga fixture on Wednesday 16 September (18:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Madrid are 3rd, among the top four, on 28 points after 12 matches; Osasuna are 16th (lower half) with 12. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Real Sociedad, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Osasuna, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Espanyol, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Osasuna.
Head to head
When they last met (12 May 2026) it ended Osasuna 1–2 Atletico Madrid.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Madrid 2.2 xG, Osasuna 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Madrid 68%, draw 23%, Osasuna 9%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Madrid to win (68%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Madrid 2–0 Osasuna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Madrid68%fair 1.47 · @1.40
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @4.50
Osasuna9%fair 10.57 · @7.50
2.90Expected goals
2.16Atletico Madrid xG
0.74Osasuna xG
49%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 2.2 – 0.7 Osasuna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our pick is Atletico Madrid to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Osasuna 9%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 2–0 Osasuna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna (La Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
