Atletico Madrid 34%Draw 20%Real Madrid 46%Expected goals 1.64 – 1.94
67%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win ✗46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.61
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:15 WAT, Sunday 20 September: Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid in the La Liga, played at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. In the table, Atletico Madrid are 3rd, among the top four, on 28 points after 12 matches; Real Madrid are 2nd (among the top four) with 30. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Osasuna, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Real Madrid, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Elche, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Momentum favours Real Madrid, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Atletico Madrid.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Madrid 1.6 xG, Real Madrid 1.9 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 67% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Madrid 34%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 46%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Atletico Madrid to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Madrid34%fair 2.94 · @3.20
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @3.90
Real Madrid46%fair 2.16 · @2.00
3.58Expected goals
1.64Atletico Madrid xG
1.94Real Madrid xG
67%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
1–36%
0–15%
From our goals model: Atletico Madrid 1.6 – 1.9 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✗
46%
2.16
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Madrid +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.61
–
Recent results
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWLLWD
16 Sep
vs Osasuna
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Liverpool
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WWWLWW
15 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Inter
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Real Betis
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Malaga
4–0
W
26 Aug
vs Real Sociedad
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers Atletico Madrid have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Real Madrid 46%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is Atletico Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
