Alaves 17%Draw 25%Atletico Madrid 58%Expected goals 0.95 – 1.91
83%
Betarazi pick
Atletico Madrid or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓58% · @1.73
Double chanceAtletico Madrid or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓10% · fair 10.08
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Madrid travel to face Alaves on Saturday 10 October in the La Liga, with Estadio de Mendizorroza the venue – the ball rolls at 15:15 WAT. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Atletico Madrid are 3rd (among the top four) with 28. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Athletic Club, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Real Madrid, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Alaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.0 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 17%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 58%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Madrid or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Madrid or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves17%fair 5.90 · @4.20
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.60
Atletico Madrid58%fair 1.71 · @1.73
2.86Expected goals
0.95Alaves xG
1.91Atletico Madrid xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
0–210%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.0 – 1.9 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
58%
1.71
1.73
Double chance
Atletico Madrid or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.75
Draw no bet
Atletico Madrid (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Atletico Madrid to score first
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Atletico Madrid ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 6
DLLWWD
19 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Valencia
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Racing Santander
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Osasuna
5–2
W
28 Aug
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
20 Aug
@ Rayo Vallecano
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WWWLLW
20 Sep
vs Real Madrid
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Osasuna
4–0
W
13 Sep
@ Real Sociedad
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Liverpool
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Atletico Madrid or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Alaves have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 58%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Alaves 0–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
