Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the La Liga brings Real Madrid against Villarreal at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Real Madrid are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 12 matches; Villarreal are 8th (upper half) with 15. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Real Madrid, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Madrid, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Villarreal, last 5: WWLLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Levante, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Real Madrid, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Villarreal.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Madrid 2.6 xG, Villarreal 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Madrid 69%, draw 19%, Villarreal 12%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Real Madrid to win (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Madrid 2–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Madrid69%fair 1.45 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.19 · @5.00
Villarreal12%fair 8.43 · @6.50
3.64Expected goals
2.59Real Madrid xG
1.05Villarreal xG
65%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 2.6 – 1.1 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.44
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Real Madrid -1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.81
–
Recent results
Real Madrid – last 6
LWWWLW
20 Sep
@ Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
15 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Inter
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Real Betis
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs Malaga
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
WWLLLL
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
28 Aug
@ Alaves
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Villarreal.
What is the prediction for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Real Madrid to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Villarreal 12%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Real Madrid vs Villarreal (La Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
