Value bet: England to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEngland to win ✓42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.11
Mexico vs England: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Monday 6 July: Mexico v England in the World Cup, played at Estadio Azteca.
Current form
Mexico, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ecuador, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 5 won, 0 lost from 5. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
England, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Congo DR, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mexico 1.1 xG, England 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mexico 33%, draw 26%, England 42%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: England to win @2.58 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mexico 1–1 England. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mexico33%fair 3.07 · @2.75
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.15
England42%fair 2.39 · @2.58
2.59Expected goals
1.14Mexico xG
1.45England xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Mexico 1.1 – 1.5 England expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
England to win✓
42%
2.39
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
England (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Mexico +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.05
First team to score
England to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT England / FT England✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.11
–
Recent results
Mexico – last 6
WWWWWW
1 Jul
vs Ecuador
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Czechia
3–0
W
19 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
11 Jun
vs South Africa
2–0
W
5 Jun
vs Serbia
5–1
W
31 May
vs Australia
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
England – last 6
WWDWWW
1 Jul
vs Congo DR
2–1
W
27 Jun
@ Panama
2–0
W
23 Jun
vs Ghana
0–0
D
17 Jun
vs Croatia
4–2
W
10 Jun
vs Costa Rica
3–0
W
6 Jun
vs New Zealand
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and England.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mexico vs England?
On our numbers Mexico have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and England 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs England?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs England?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–1 England, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs England?
Mexico vs England (World Cup) kicks off on Monday 6 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portugal0
Spain1