Mérida AD 28%Draw 52%Deportivo La Coruña II 20%Expected goals 1.37 – 1.20
80%
Betarazi pick
Mérida AD or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 52% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +65%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗52% · @3.20
Double chanceMérida AD or draw ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.95
Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:15 WAT, Saturday 29 August: Mérida AD v Deportivo La Coruña II in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Deportivo La Coruña II are 18th (in the drop zone) with 11.
Current form
Mérida AD, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Alcorcon, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Deportivo La Coruña II, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Real Madrid II, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo La Coruña II, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.4 xG, Deportivo La Coruña II 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 28%, draw 52%, Deportivo La Coruña II 20%.
Lower-risk option: Mérida AD or draw (80%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mérida AD or draw (80%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.25, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–1 Deportivo La Coruña II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD28%fair 3.55 · @2.15
Draw52%fair 1.93 · @3.20
Deportivo La Coruña II20%fair 4.97 · @3.00
2.57Expected goals
1.37Mérida AD xG
1.20Deportivo La Coruña II xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.4 – 1.2 Deportivo La Coruña II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
52%
1.93
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Mérida AD or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.80
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo La Coruña II +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.10
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.95
–
Recent results
Mérida AD – last 6
WLLLLW
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
9 May
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo La Coruña II – last 6
LWLWWW
5 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Real Ávila
4–0
W
26 Apr
vs Real Valladolid II
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Salamanca UDS
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs UD Ourense
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Burgos Promesas
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Deportivo La Coruña II.
What is the prediction for Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Our pick is Mérida AD or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 52% and Deportivo La Coruña II 20%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Deportivo La Coruña II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II?
Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
