Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 52% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +66%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗52% · @3.20
Double chancePonferradina or draw ✓76% · @1.48
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.67
UD Ourense vs Ponferradina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 29 August: UD Ourense v Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF Group 1. In the table, UD Ourense are 20th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Ponferradina are 11th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
UD Ourense, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Conquense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Ponferradina, last 5: DWDLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Real Madrid II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours UD Ourense, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Ponferradina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UD Ourense 1.2 xG, Ponferradina 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UD Ourense 24%, draw 52%, Ponferradina 24%.
Lower-risk option: Ponferradina or draw (76%) at 1.48.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ponferradina or draw (76%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.31, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: UD Ourense 1–1 Ponferradina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UD Ourense24%fair 4.20 · @2.55
Draw52%fair 1.93 · @3.20
Ponferradina24%fair 4.11 · @2.55
2.42Expected goals
1.20UD Ourense xG
1.21Ponferradina xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 1.2 – 1.2 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
52%
1.93
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.48 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.83
Draw no bet
Ponferradina (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
UD Ourense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Ponferradina to score first✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✗
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.67
–
Recent results
UD Ourense – last 6
WWDWLW
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
3 May
vs Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ Bergantiños
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
0–3
L
5 Apr
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 6
DWDLLD
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
29 Jul
@ Oviedo
0–4
L
20 Jun
@ Celta de Vigo II
1–4
L
13 Jun
vs Celta de Vigo II
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Ponferradina or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 52% and Ponferradina 24%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Ponferradina?
UD Ourense vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
