Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultPonferradina to win ✗57% · @1.75
Double chancePonferradina or draw ✗79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Ponferradina against Real Avilés. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Ponferradina are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Real Avilés are 4th (among the top four) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mirandes, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Real Avilés, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Lugo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ponferradina, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Real Avilés.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Aug 2026) it ended Ponferradina 1–1 Real Avilés.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.5 xG, Real Avilés 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 57%, draw 22%, Real Avilés 21%.
Lower-risk option: Ponferradina or draw (79%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ponferradina or draw (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–0 Real Avilés. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponferradina57%fair 1.74 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.20
Real Avilés21%fair 4.78 · @4.00
2.25Expected goals
1.50Ponferradina xG
0.75Real Avilés xG
51%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.5 – 0.8 Real Avilés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Our pick is Ponferradina or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Real Avilés 21%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Real Avilés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
Ponferradina vs Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
