Pontevedra 40%Draw 24%Mérida AD 36%Expected goals 1.55 – 1.45
61%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPontevedra to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.56
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pontevedra welcome Mérida AD for a Primera División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 11 October (15:30 WAT). In the table, Pontevedra are 3rd, among the top four, on 18 points after 11 matches; Mérida AD are 8th (upper half) with 16. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pontevedra, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Racing Ferrol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Mérida AD, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cacereño, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pontevedra 1.5 xG, Mérida AD 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pontevedra 40%, draw 24%, Mérida AD 36%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Mérida AD to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontevedra 1–1 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pontevedra40%fair 2.50 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.90
Mérida AD36%fair 2.78 · @3.10
3.00Expected goals
1.55Pontevedra xG
1.45Mérida AD xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Pontevedra 1.5 – 1.5 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontevedra to win✗
40%
2.50
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Pontevedra (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Mérida AD +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Pontevedra to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontevedra / FT Pontevedra✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.56
–
Recent results
Pontevedra – last 6
LDDLWW
3 Oct
@ Racing Ferrol
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Ponferradina
1–1
D
18 Sep
@ UD Logroñés
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
WLLLLW
4 Oct
vs Cacereño
2–0
W
27 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
3–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontevedra and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Pontevedra have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mérida AD 36%.
How many goals will there be in Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Pontevedra 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Pontevedra vs Mérida AD?
Pontevedra vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
