UD Ourense 20%Draw 23%Barakaldo 57%Expected goals 0.75 – 1.50
80%
Betarazi pick
Barakaldo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBarakaldo to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✗80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barakaldo travel to face UD Ourense on Saturday 10 October in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio de O Couto the venue – the ball rolls at 17:45 WAT. In the table, UD Ourense are 20th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Barakaldo are 12th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
UD Ourense, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real Unión, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Barakaldo, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Arenas Getxo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Barakaldo, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for UD Ourense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UD Ourense 0.7 xG, Barakaldo 1.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UD Ourense 20%, draw 23%, Barakaldo 57%.
Lower-risk option: Barakaldo or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Barakaldo to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Barakaldo or draw (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: UD Ourense 0–1 Barakaldo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UD Ourense20%fair 4.90 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Barakaldo57%fair 1.75 · @1.95
2.25Expected goals
0.75UD Ourense xG
1.50Barakaldo xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 0.7 – 1.5 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✗
80%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.83
Draw no bet
Barakaldo (draw no bet)✗
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
UD Ourense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Barakaldo to score first✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.24
–
Recent results
UD Ourense – last 6
DDLLLL
3 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Cacereño
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
DDLWLD
3 Oct
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Real Avilés
3–3
D
19 Sep
@ Racing Ferrol
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barakaldo 57%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 0–1 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Barakaldo?
UD Ourense vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
