Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Alcorcon to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlcorcon to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceAlcorcon or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Alcorcon vs Gimnastic: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 20 September: Alcorcon v Gimnastic in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo. In the table, Alcorcon are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Gimnastic are 11th (lower half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alcorcon, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Antequera, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Gimnastic, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Algeciras, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Gimnastic, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Alcorcon.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alcorcon 1.6 xG, Gimnastic 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alcorcon 61%, draw 23%, Gimnastic 17%.
Lower-risk option: Alcorcon or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Alcorcon to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alcorcon or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcorcon 1–0 Gimnastic. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alcorcon61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.00
Gimnastic17%fair 5.95 · @3.90
2.33Expected goals
1.63Alcorcon xG
0.70Gimnastic xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.6 – 0.7 Gimnastic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Alcorcon or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Draw no bet
Alcorcon (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Gimnastic +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Alcorcon to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✓
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Alcorcon – last 6
DDDLLD
12 Sep
@ Antequera
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Europa Fc
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Águilas
2–2
D
18 Aug
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Mérida AD
1–2
L
12 Aug
vs Rayo Majadahonda
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Gimnastic – last 6
WDWLDD
11 Sep
vs Algeciras
4–2
W
5 Sep
@ FC Cartagena
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Zaragoza
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Espanyol II
0–3
L
13 Aug
vs Huesca
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Girona
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Gimnastic.
Our pick is Alcorcon or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gimnastic 17%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–0 Gimnastic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Gimnastic?
Alcorcon vs Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
