Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlgeciras to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceAlgeciras or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Algeciras vs Águilas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Primera División RFEF Group 2 brings Algeciras against Águilas at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Algeciras are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Águilas are 17th (lower half) with 9.
Current form
Algeciras, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Gimnastic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Águilas, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Real Madrid II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Águilas, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for Algeciras.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Algeciras 2.2 xG, Águilas 1.1 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Algeciras 61%, draw 23%, Águilas 16%.
Lower-risk option: Algeciras or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Algeciras or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Algeciras 2–1 Águilas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Algeciras61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @2.88
Águilas16%fair 6.37 · @3.70
3.33Expected goals
2.23Algeciras xG
1.10Águilas xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Algeciras 2.2 – 1.1 Águilas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Algeciras or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Algeciras (draw no bet)
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Algeciras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Algeciras to score first✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Algeciras ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Algeciras – last 6
LLLDDL
11 Sep
@ Gimnastic
2–4
L
4 Sep
@ Villarreal II
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs FC Cartagena
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
1–1
D
1 May
vs FC Cartagena
2–2
D
12 Apr
@ Villarreal II
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Águilas – last 6
WLDWDW
12 Sep
vs Real Madrid II
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ Sant Andreu
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–0
W
24 May
vs Poblense
0–0
D
17 May
vs Utebo
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Águilas.
Our pick is Algeciras or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Algeciras vs Águilas?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Águilas 16%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Águilas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Águilas?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 2–1 Águilas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Águilas?
Algeciras vs Águilas (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
